Ukraine’s present war against nuclear armed Russia, which started when Putin attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022 is unwinnable. This is despite the fact that the U.S. has promised and given Ukraine $175 billion since the start of the war.
This tragic war is unwinnable because Russia has a much more powerful military than Ukraine – plus, Kyiv is simply outnumbered. Not to mention that Russia has both 11,000 North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region (oblast) and an unknown number of foreign mercenaries (e.g. Yemenis) in eastern occupied Ukraine. Then there is the fact that Russia has an unlimited supply of weaponry from their three allies: Communist China, fanatical Iran and despotic North Korea.
Communist China has especially helped Russia to invade Ukraine by supplying them with a plethora of high-tech weaponry: microelectronics (missiles and aircraft), nitrocellulose (propellants), military optics (tanks), UAV/turbojet engines (cruise missiles), semiconductors and space technology (imagery). According to Newsweek, it is estimated that 60% of Russia’s weapons now come from Communist China.
In addition to the military assistance from Russia’s allies, the former Soviet Russia appears to be economically thriving because almost all of NATO’s economic sanctions since the war’s start have completely failed. Russia now plans to increase its defense spending by 25% in 2025, which will amount to “6.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), the highest levels since the Cold War.”
President Zelensky naively believes that he has a “victory plan” to defeat Russia. The man is simply delusional because Russia has 5,580 nuclear warheads, and Moscow is fighting this war with one arm behind its back in order to avoid a military draft, which could possibly result in domestic upheaval.
Putin has also been extremely reluctant to use tactical or low yield nuclear weapons inside Ukraine in order to avoid accusations of crimes against humanity and becoming more of an international pariah. However, the Kremlin’s use of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons is a distinct possibility.
Unfortunately, Putin very well may emulate the late U.S. National Security Adviser (1969-75) and Secretary of State (1973-77) Henry Kissinger (1923-2023), who advocated the “doctrine of limited nuclear war” in order to avoid World War III. What the hyper-intellectual Kissinger never fully understood is that a limited nuclear war could suddenly become an all-out nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia in a mere matter of seconds because of the fog of war.
Besides using nuclear weapons, Russia has already devastated much of Ukraine’s power grid and nuclear power substations. It could also destroy most of the city of Kyiv by using conventional weapons to destroy the Irpin Dam holding back the vast Kyiv Reservoir less than five miles north of the capital city, which generates vast amounts of hydroelectricity and is used for irrigation. The destruction of Kyiv potentially could devastate much of the national government in addition to creating a huge humanitarian nightmare and massive refugee crisis in central and western Europe.
Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, has stated that “’If the [Irpin] dam breaks, millions of people downstream could [can] die.” Plus, Ukraine, which has a huge problem with low morale, insubordination and desertion, cannot continue to sustain its high casualties compared to Russia. Plus, Ukraine has a huge problem with draft evasion among men between the ages of 18 and 60.
The New York Times has estimated as of August 18, 2023 that “the total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000.” The Wall Street Journal has estimated as of September 17, 2024 that “the number of Ukrainians and Russians killed or wounded in the grinding 2½-year war has reached roughly one million.”
This tragic war is truly a mostly a meat-grinder resembling World War I trench warfare, especially because of the suicidal Russian human-wave attacks along the approximately 1200-mile eastern Ukrainian Russian border. Instead of anachronistic biplanes both sides have made extensive use of deadly drones.
Putin emphatically warned NATO on September 12 that any U.S. or British provided long-range missiles that might strike inside Russia could be met with nuclear weapons. According to CBS News he stated, “a decision by the U.S. or its NATO allies to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles easily to hit targets deep inside Russia would be viewed as NATO’s direct participation in the war,” which could be the beginning of World War III.
Putin later stated on November 22 that his “new Oreshnik hypersonic missile used against Ukraine last week will go into serial production and is “ready to be used” again if necessary.” Fortunately, the missile was not carrying any nuclear warheads. Putin also stated, the “Oreshnik cannot be stopped or intercepted and will be deployed as part of the country’s Strategic Missile Forces.”
Putin is also most acutely aware that the U.S. has had a tendency to cut and run since the Korean War (1950-53) with the exception of Iraq (2003-11) when reaching a military stalemate or worse with a military ally. This was clearly demonstrated at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba on April 17, 1961, in South Vietnam on April 30, 1975 and recently in Afghanistan on August 30, 2021.
President Biden, who only has only six weeks left in the Oval Office and is the de facto leader of NATO, needs to deescalate the Russo-Ukraine war immediately by not allowing Ukraine to use any more American or British long-range missiles against Russia in order to avoid a possible World War III. That is because Putin may not be bluffing. Only a diplomatic solution will solve this unwinnable three-year war, which President-elect Trump has promised to either solve diplomatically before or after his Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025.
– Robert L. Maronic
