I read a prescient and depressing article in the Associated Press written by Danica Coto on August 16, 2025, entitled, “Hurricane Erin Explodes In Strength To A Category 5 Storm In The Caribbean.” The most alarming fact about Erin, which was the first major hurricane of the 2025 season, was that this category 1 (75 mph) hurricane turned into a category 5 (160 mph) northeast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands “in a single day” [my emphasis] during the morning of August 16.
Hurricane Erin also turned out to be one of the most “rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history.”
To make matters worse, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting this fall “a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”
My big question for NOAA is what will be the total range of hurricanes at the category 4 or 5 level in 2030 or 2040? I especially thought about the potential amount of property destruction and death.
As the 21st century progresses, we shall quickly realize that almost any year before 1960 is going to look nostalgic for hurricane damage, which will inevitably occur on both the east and west coasts of the U.S. Fortunately, our modern weather satellites can give us a much better warning about devastating hurricanes.
Last week, Hurricane Erin stayed equidistant between the East Coast and Bermuda from August 19 through August 25 as it went northward while losing strength, encountering cooler waters in the North Atlantic.
Erin’s sudden change into a catastrophic category 5 hurricane on August 16 after being a category 1 on August 15 was a highly abnormal occurrence in the Caribbean. It was because Erin changed with such extreme rapid intensification in mid-August, and not September. It was nature’s warning that hurricane season could get much worse this fall, and most certainly for the remainder of the 21st century.
This is scientific fact and not mindless alarmism.
According to CNN, “rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification over 35 mph, which occurred last week, historically tends to happen in September and October.”
There are “only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic,” but Erin is the “11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016.” That is not good news for the future.
Can you imagine if Miami, Florida, or Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, received one or two direct category 5 hurricanes within an eight-week time frame? I cannot because the humanitarian suffering and property destruction would be unimaginable.
However, that may be our dismal future for the remainder of the century. If so, it could cost the U.S. Treasury hundreds of billions of dollars after the devastation of each category 4 or 5 hurricane.
Last September 24, Hurricane Helene turned into a category 4 hurricane after just two days in the Gulf of Mexico, afterinitially being a tropical storm. The hurricane eventually reached the Florida panhandle and caused massive destruction in the southeastern U.S., overburdening FEMA, especially in western North Carolina and Asheville.
Western North Carolina, which is approximately five hundred miles from the Florida panhandle, calculated the cost to thetaxpayers at $53 billion, excluding the tens of billions of dollars spent on the rest of the southeastern U.S.
As stated previously, it is not climatically normal for a tropical storm to become a Category 4 hurricane within two days. That was because the waters in the Gulf of Mexico were extremely warm (85°F) on September 23, 2024, as a result ofclimate change. This primarily contributed to the rapid intensification of the tropical storm into a devastating hurricane.
To be continued
