I am totally bewildered how a U.S. aircraft carrier group or Trump-class battleship is going to stop THOUSANDS of aerial and underwater kamikaze drones simultaneously launched from an inexpensive expendable Chinese cargo ship or Hainan island? This cargo ship and its drones would only cost a small fraction of replacing a sunken American aircraft carrier or Trump-class battleship.
That would be a perfect example of asymmetrical warfare reminiscent of the Spanish guerrilla warfare and defeat of Napoleon’s army during the Peninsular War from 1808 to 1814.
In the naval scenario of defending Taiwan, most American warships would be overwhelmed, heavily damaged, or most likely scuttled or sunk as far as Guam. I suspect that many U.S. warships would potentially suffer the same fate as the aircraft carrier USS Lexington during the Battle of the Coral Sea, which sank on May 8, 1942, or perhaps the USS Yorktown during the Battle of Midway, which sank on June 7, 1942.
In many ways, the militaristic expansionism of Communist China in the South China Sea since 2014 has been similar to the fascist Japanese expansionism in East Asia in 1931, but China, unlike Japan, is not presently engaged in any overt wars. However, our primary military adversary in the Indo-Pacific and the entire world for the remainder of the 21st century will unmistakably be China. Our entire Navy must defend against China’s strategy of asymmetrical warfare.
This involves fighting fire with fire and being smart about China’s quest for dominance and hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.
The military leadership of Communist China is just as devious as the ancient military genius Sun Tzu because they would like to defeat the U.S. without firing a shot or using force as a last resort in order to conquer Taiwan. If necessary, the Chinese will use intimidation, engage in cyber warfare, sever underground sea cables, destroy satellites, steal intellectual property, launch deadly suicide drones, and engage in human espionage via exchange students and researchers in U.S. universities, among other means.
China’s asymmetric warfare will include exporting more deadly fentanyl precursors to Mexico, creating bio threats, spreading TikTok propaganda, and installing malware in vital power grids, transport, and telecom systems. Meanwhile, this could create potential chaos, inhibiting a rapid U.S. military response in retaliation to an invasion of Taiwan, which would greatly resemble D-Day on June 6, 1944, but much more massive.
According to the leaked Pentagon “Overmatch Brief,” it states that the “report is a comprehensive review of U.S. military power prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment [my emphasis] and delivered most recently to top White House officials in the last year. It catalogs China’s ability to destroy American fighter planes, large ships, and satellites, and identifies the U.S. military’s supply chain choke points.”
Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, alarmingly and depressingly stated last month that “in the Pentagon’s war games against China, “‘we lose every time [myemphasis].’” To make matters even worse, China demographically has a surplus of 30 million men due to its one-child policy and China’s cultural preference for boys and the abortion of girls from 1980 to 2016. That fact makes for tremendous potential cannon fodder and high sustainable combat deaths.
The “Overmatch Brief” makes it abundantly clear that the U.S. would most likely lose in a Chinese attack on Taiwan because our Navy would not be able to defend itself against primarily hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite warfare, regardless of the fleet’s distance from Taiwan. That means the USS Ford aircraft carrier strike group would be most heavily damaged or sunk.
Building more Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike groups and Trump-class battleships are not going to help resupply Taiwan in a war against China, according to the “Overmatch Brief.” The Ford-class carriers, Trump-class battleships, and other surface warships might be effective against such countries as Venezuela, Colombia, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran, but not against China.
The only way the U.S. can realistically help Taiwan is to sell them more armaments to enhance its “Porcupine Strategy” or “Honey Badger Strategy” so that they can effectively defend themselves. Otherwise, the U.S. Navy might risk losing the largest number of warships except for submarines since World War II because of hypersonic missiles, anti-satellite warfare, massive drone attacks, etc.
It should be noted that Ukraine, which does not even have a navy, has totally neutralized the Russian Black Sea Fleet using asymmetric warfare with the use of drones and cruise missiles. The U.S. Navy is basically the Russian Black Sea fleet in a war against China.
Mr. President, please do not fight the last naval war. As former French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau (1917-20) once warned, “Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.”
Robert L. Maronic
