For several years now, Virginians have been told that the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) is necessary to save Virginia and is a necessary step to save the planet. We’ve been told that rising seas, worsening storms, and other supposedly catastrophic impacts of man-made climate change justify a radical restructuring of Virginia’s entire energy system. But what if that very premise — the idea of accelerating climate danger — rests on faulty or potentially unreliable data?
A recent peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, entitled “A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes,” cuts right to the heart of the green extreme narrative. Contrary to the drumbeat of alarm, the Dutch researchers found no evidence that sea level rise has accelerated due to climate change. Sea levels have been inching upward since the end of the last Ice Age, but the data shows no sudden spike in recent decades. If rising seas are not accelerating, then the doomsday clock that climate advocates use to justify economy-wrecking mandates simply isn’t ticking as loudly or as fast as they claim.
Nowhere is this misunderstanding more evident than in Hampton Roads and Norfolk, often held up as “ground zero” for sea level rise in Virginia. What is rarely mentioned is that much of the measured change there is the result of land subsidence (the ground itself is sinking) rather than the oceans rapidly rising. That distinction matters. It means local challenges in Norfolk are largely geological and infrastructural, not evidence of global climate collapse.
Streets in Norfolk routinely flood during heavy rains and tides, and the region’s naval installations are grappling with the need for improved stormwater management and hardened infrastructure. These are serious local concerns, but they stem from subsiding land and aging drainage systems, not accelerating global sea rise. Addressing them requires targeted investments in drainage, stormwater systems, and coastal defenses, projects that could be undertaken for a few billion dollars, far less than the $20 billion or more Dominion plans to sink into offshore wind (including a yet to be startedPhase II).
Those infrastructure improvements would directly improve resilience for residents and the Navy alike. Yet instead of focusing resources on real, fixable infrastructure needs, alarmists point to Hampton Roads as proof that Virginia must rush headlong into energy policies that drive up costs and weaken Virginia’s power grid.
Sea level is not an isolated datapoint. For years, we at the Thomas Jefferson Institute have pointed out that hurricanes are not becoming more frequent, flooding patterns remain consistent, and temperatures show small but stable increases. In short, the climate is not spiraling out of control. Yet the General Assembly chose in 2020 to push through the VCEA, which demands the elimination of all hydrocarbon-based power plants (coal, oil, and eventually natural gas) within the next couple of decades.
That brings us to the second fatal flaw of the VCEA: even if one accepts the faulty or questionable climate premise, the execution is reckless and impractical. The law mandates the forced closure of reliable power plants and insists that intermittent wind and solar can and will carry the load. But as our Steve Haner recently noted on Bacon’s Rebellion, even the staff of the State Corporation Commission, the very agency charged with protecting ratepayers, has warned that Virginia will need more natural gas plants, not fewer, because wind and solar will inevitably collapse during periods of peak demand. When the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, you cannot wish electricity into existence with legislation.
And then there is the cost. Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project will carry a price tag of roughly $10 billion just for the first phase, and ratepayers are already seeing surcharges appear on their monthly bills. The full buildout could approach $20 billion or more, and all of that will be passed along to households and businesses, with Dominion capturing its guaranteed profit. For perspective: those billions could have funded several new natural gas plants, each providing 24/7 reliable baseload power, at a fraction of the cost. Instead, Virginians are being forced to subsidize a project that will generate power only when the weather cooperates and will be meaningless on the days we need it most. Offshore wind is not just a gamble on technology — it’s a guaranteed hit on every ratepayer’s wallet.
Virginians should understand what’s at stake here. The VCEA is not just a misguided response to faulty climate models; it’s a guarantee of higher electric bills, more risk of blackouts, and a less competitive economy against our neighbors. We’re being asked to dismantle a system that works and to replace it with one that, by the SCC’s own analysis, cannot meet demand.
The next election will determine whether Virginia stays bound by the unworkable and dangerous VCEA, or whether we take a more pragmatic approach — one that prioritizes reliability, affordability, and sound science over ideology. Voters should weigh this heavily as they go to the polls. Our energy future and the stability of every Virginia family’s electric bill depend on it.
Derrick Max is the President & CEO of the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy and may be reached at [email protected].
