Phase one of Trump‘s twenty-point peace plan in the Gaza Strip, which began on October 9, called for a ceasefire, cessation of military operations, along with a hostage and prisoner exchange.
Phase one specifically called for the release of the last twenty living Israeli hostages, which occurred on October 13, in exchange for “250 Palestinian prisoners and detainees held in Israeli prisons, as well as 1,700 people detained in Gaza since the war began.” Phase one also called for the release of twenty-eight dead Israeli hostages in exchange for any deceased Palestinians in Israeli-occupied territory.
Since October 13, I have become increasingly dubious about the success of phase two, which is critically imminent, and calls for Hamas to surrender its military weapons, undergo demilitarization, accept amnesty, or face exile. Dream on.
I think that Hamas surrendering its weapons or demilitarizing is wishful thinking.
Phase two also calls for the establishment of a new governing mechanism in Gaza, … and the formation of an international stabilization force (ISF), … that would take over responsibility from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) … currently occupying parts (53%) of the Gaza Strip behind the “Yellow Line” (see map) as of November 5.
I think that the “establishment of a new governing mechanism” or “ISF” is wishful thinking.
Right now, it is estimated that there are approximately 20,000 Hamas terrorists, fully armed, hiding within the Gaza Strip terror tunnels. My knowledge of the Middle East, based on the last thirty-eight years, tells me that these terrorists would much prefer martyrdom or death than surrender. However, going into exile to such countries as Turkey, South Africa, or Qatar may be a viable option, but I truly doubt it.
I think that Hamas choosing exile is wishful thinking.
Something tells me that the IDF has fully sensed and has been slowly setting up Hamas for the kill in the Machiavellian spirit of Realpolitik. Most likely, seeking peace in the Gaza Strip as Trump envisions it, is not going to be as civilized as a commercial real estate deal in uptown Manhattan in New York City.
Hamas, which has indoctrinated or brainwashed (Hamasafied) almost 2.1 million Palestinians in their little littoral enclave since 2007, all deserve a much better life than being governed by tyrannical Islamo-fascists. That is because Hamas masked gunmen with their kelly-green headbands are totally reminiscent of the Nazi German SS Einsatzgruppen based on their massacre of “1,200 innocent men, women, and children — including 48 Americans” on October 7, 2023.
Since the semi-withdrawal of the IDF in the Gaza Strip on October 10, Hamas has tolerated no political dissent and has engaged in numerous summary public executions of its political opponents with no due process. If a Gazan disagrees with Hamas and persists, that person is a dead man or woman. It is that simple.
I think that phase two of the president’s peace plan is doomed to fail because Hamas will neither disarm nor accept exile unless you believe in the tooth fairy. Hamas fully knows that if they accept exile or demilitarization, it will forever cease to exist as a military and political force within either the Gaza Strip or West Bank.
Hamas is essentially led by a bunch of tactical and strategic fools in thinking that they can defeat the IDF, the fifteenth most powerful military in the world, according to Global Firepower in 2025. Fortunately, the IDF’s closest ally is the U.S., which has the most powerful military in the world.
Hamas’ mentality is highly reminiscent of the Japanese kamikaze pilots in World War II, the suicide bombers of the First Intifada (1987-93 and Second Intifada (2000-05), along with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in suicidally fighting King Hussein of Jordan in September 1970, aka Black September.
So far, as of December 6, all Israeli hostages have been released except for the corpse of Israeli police officer Ran Guvili, who was killed fighting Hamas on October 7, 2023, despite having a broken shoulder.
According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, a ceasefire, which occurred in phase one of Trump’s peace deal, is defined as “a suspension of active hostilities.” That simply means that Israel has neither defeated Hamas nor has Hamas defeated Israel.
Most assuredly, Israel does not want a repetition of October 7, 2023, the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, in another ten or fifteen years, headed by a new mastermind like Yahya Sinwar. Israel does not want another generation of Hamas terrorists attacking Israel without warning so that they can pillage, rape (men and women), torture, murder, execute, kidnap, and commit other unspeakable atrocities.
The war between Israel and Hamas up to now has paused in a tie or stalemate despite the welcome release of twenty hostages and four corpses on October 13, along with three more on October 14 and two more on October 15. The last remaining dead hostage released was the Thai farm worker Sudthisak Rinthalak on November 4.
It must be fully understood that if Trump and Netanyahu had sought an unconditional surrender of Hamas, there never would have been any release of either the Israeli hostages or corpses. Plus, a lot of Gazan civilians would have inevitably died.
In my opinion, the only realistic way to bring peace to the Gaza Strip is “Hamas delenda est” (Hamas must be destroyed). Israel, if necessary, may have to emulate Jordanian King Hussein’s annihilation of the PLO during Black September in 1970 and imprison the survivors.
To be continued
Robert L. Maronic
