It’s widely known that polls can be flawed, but they may indicate trends, and recent polling shows a changing field for the three statewide offices now up for grabs.
Larry O’Connor, a talk radio host on WMAL-FM in Washington, claims on Twitter/X that pollster Robert Cahaly and the Trafalgar polling group “absolutely NAILED the Virginia races in 2021,” when the Old Dominion had its last gubernatorial election by making very accurate predictions. As many have pointed out, Glenn Youngkin trailed in all polls until just four days before election day, when he ended up winning by about 2%.
Thus, many took notice when Cahaly posted on October 16 results from the Trafalgar group’s polling from October 13-15.
VA Governor:
47.5% Abigail Spanberger (D)
45.3% Winsome Sears (R)
0.8% Donna Charles
6.4% Undecided
These numbers show a large shift, with Sears behind Spanberger by only 2.2%, which is within the margin of error.
It also shows a large momentum toward Sears, because as recently as Sept. 29-Oct. 1, the gap was 5.2%, with 47.1% for Spanberger and 41.9% for Sears. Some polling as recently as May showed Spanberger with a lead of some 18%.
VA Lt. Governor:
46.2% Ghazala Hashmi (D)
46.1% John Reid (R)
7.8% Undecided
Despite Hashmi’s campaign having far more money than Reid’s, polling shows this race is dead even.
VA Attorney General:
49.5% Jason Miyares
44.6% Jay Jones
5.9% Undecided
The biggest movement has been in the attorney general race, where Jones suffered four public relations scandals in rapid succession. First was the revelation that he had been driving 116 mph on I-64, which was classified as reckless driving. Second was news that, instead of getting jail time for reckless driving, he did community service, but 500 hours of it werefor his own political action campaign, which most observers agree is illegal and cannot count as punishment. Third was Jones’ texting scandal, where he expressed fantasies to see a political rival and his two sons, ages two and five at the time, be killed by gunfire in hopes of getting people to change their political views. Fourth was his expressed wish that if more police officers died in the line of duty, other officers might be less likely to use force while on patrol.
Jones’ scandals have been so impactful that the Bedford County Sheriff’s Office and State Police Association have called on Jones to exit the race.
Before Jones’ 2022 texting story went public on October 3, Jones had been slightly ahead of Miyares in most polls, but the Trafalgar polls show Miyares having opened a roughly 5% lead.
With only one exception, no Virginia Democrats have called on Jones to quit the race. Gov. Youngkin blasts those refusals as condoning the violent messages.
Since early voting started last September, over 400,000 Virginians had already cast their ballots before Jones’ recent revelations came to light.
Early voting is ongoing, and the last day to vote is Tuesday, Nov. 4. In addition to the three above-mentioned offices, all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for grabs, too, each having a two-year term.
Want to find your voting place, dates, and hours? Use this state-run, non-partisan website, elections.virginia.gov, to find it.
-Scott Dreyer
